FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group L · Matchday 1
Moscow, 2018: a Croatian goal in extra time settled it 2-1, Croatia went on to the final, and England went home. Eight years on, the same two sides open Group L in Arlington — with the roles reversed. England arrive as clear favourites. Croatia arrive with a defence that hasn't kept a clean sheet in six straight matches, conceding ten over that run. Luka Modrić is forty now, playing his sixth World Cup. Thomas Tuchel built his squad without Palmer, Foden or Alexander-Arnold. Wednesday is the first real test of that project.
Odds
Indicative reference; lines will move toward kickoff.
- 1X2: England in the 1.70–1.80 range; draw around 3.70–3.90; Croatia at 4.50 or longer.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals: a fairly even market, with a slight lean toward the Under.
Tuchel's side come in defensively solid: four clean sheets in their last six, eleven goals scored and two conceded. There's one detail worth a closer look, though. Back in March, England drew with Uruguay at Wembley and then lost to Japan — those two results account for both goals conceded in that run, and both opponents rank higher than anyone England have beaten under Tuchel. The best-ranked side they've beaten since he took charge is Wales, thirtieth in the FIFA rankings. Croatia sit tenth. That gap is what gets tested on Wednesday.
Kane, England's all-time leading scorer, captains the side at his third World Cup. Bellingham plays off the striker in a 4-2-3-1, Saka on the right, Rice anchoring midfield. The starting eleven hasn't been confirmed, but the shape is familiar — built without Palmer, Foden or Trent Alexander-Arnold — and the squad is still one of the deepest in the tournament.
Croatia come in with questions at the back and an eleven that isn't fully settled. Dalić switched between back threes and back fours through the build-up, and in the last friendly against Slovenia he made five changes from the team he'd been using. Gvardiol returned from a fractured tibia on 14 May and made the squad; Kovačić has carried an Achilles problem all season; Modrić came into this final run of tournaments with a fractured cheekbone. All three are in Arlington, but the medical staff are watching them closely.
Recent form
| Team | Form | Goals (last 6) | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | W W W D L W | 11 / 2 | 4 of 6 |
| Croatia | W W W D D W | 11 / 10 | 0 of 6 |
Oldest to most recent, left to right.
The key battle: Modrić's tempo against Rice's screen
Wednesday won't be decided in either goal. It'll be decided in midfield. At forty, in his sixth World Cup, Modrić has built three tournament runs on the same idea: control the tempo and bend the match onto Croatia's terms. He did it in Moscow, where England had the better players on paper and Croatia had the ball when it mattered.
Tuchel designed his team to do the opposite. Rice is the anchor of the double pivot, charged with cutting off the supply at the source; Bellingham is free to arrive from deep; the pressing block looks to win the ball back before Croatia can build. If the system can isolate Modrić in the first half-hour — denying him space, forcing him to receive with his back to goal — the ball finds Kane and Bellingham against a defence that hasn't shut out a single opponent in six matches.
If Croatia shake off the press and Modrić finds his rhythm, the game slows down, and that's a match the Balkan side can manage. They did it in Moscow. They've spent a decade doing it at major tournaments. Kovačić is the quiet variable: last ninety minutes at full intensity and Modrić has a partner to hold possession and contain Bellingham; let the Achilles become a problem and Croatia's midfield loses the balance it needs to compete. That's precisely the scenario Tuchel's system is built to bring about.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jun 2021 | UEFA Euro 2020, group stage | Wembley | England 1-0 Croatia |
| 11 Jul 2018 | World Cup, semi-final | Moscow | Croatia 2-1 England (a.e.t.) |
| 21 Jun 2004 | UEFA Euro 2004, group stage | Portugal | England 4-2 Croatia |
Overall record (11 matches): England 6 wins, Croatia 3, 2 draws. The only knockout meeting between them was Moscow 2018. None of the last three major-tournament meetings ended in a draw.
The pick
| 1X2 | England |
|---|---|
| Goals | Under 2.5 |
| Reference odds | England in the 1.70–1.80 range (indicative, no book) |
The bet is England. Tuchel's side have the most balanced squad in the group, no confirmed absences, and Croatia's defensive fragility — ten conceded in six matches — is exactly what Kane and Bellingham are built to exploit. The complementary call is Under 2.5 goals: the last competitive meeting between these two finished 1-0, Dalić isn't coming to Arlington to trade goals, and Croatia's midfield arrives with physical doubts that cap its attacking ceiling. The 2018 and 2004 matches produced more goals, but in both Croatia fielded a double pivot without the physical limitations this squad is carrying. That difference holds.
The risk comes in two forms. First, if Modrić controls the first half and Croatia reach the break level, the draw comes into play: they manage that scenario better than England do, and the 1X2 loses its edge. Second, if England score early and Croatia are forced to open up, that defence — which didn't keep a clean sheet in a single warm-up match — can concede a second, and the Under 2.5 disappears. The scenario that keeps both bets alive looks like Wembley 2021: an early England goal, Croatia holding under pressure without finding an equaliser, and the match closing out 1-0 or 2-0.
Guatemala aren't at this World Cup, but the match kicks off Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. local time, free-to-air on Albavisión and Tigo Sports. For the Guatemalan fan following the tournament from the office or from home, it's the headline of the opening matchday: the Moscow rematch, Modrić's last World Cup, and the first real test of an England side that's spent months promising more than it has delivered.
